AGI Arrival Forecast

Updated 2026-08-17

June 10, 2031
-68 Days

An independently-verified mathematical breakthrough (a 37-year-stagnant Riemann Hypothesis lower bound improved via autonomous multi-agent research, confirmed by outside mathematicians including a Fields medalist) was the dominant driver, reinforced by a broad wave of competitive frontier and open-weight model releases (xAI, Google, Meta, Z.ai) showing continued rapid capability and efficiency gains across the industry.

Recent Volatility

Why did it change?

History Log

2026-08-10 Update-45d Net Shift
2026-08-03 Update-67d Net Shift
2026-07-26 Update-25d Net Shift
2026-07-19 Update0d Net Shift

Z.ai (China) showed significant self-reported gains in coding and cybersecurity benchmarks with open-weight release planned; treated with appropriate discount due to lack of independent verification.